If you look at the live tracker right now, all vessels are moving back to the west of the Strait of Hormuz. This comes just a day after Iran said it was open to all commercial vessels, but that does not appear to be the case. Even yesterday when that announcement came, we saw about a dozen vessels trying to approach Larak Island, where the IRGC is believed to be monitoring passage. They all turned back. Today, we did see about 10 vessels pass through the strait into the Gulf of Oman. Five of those are believed to be sanctioned vessels, so we still have to wait and see whether the US naval blockade will stop them. But this is completely chaotic and confusing for international shipping. Thousands of vessels are believed to be stranded, and the vast majority do not want to risk anything.

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